Quarterly Review: Q4, 2023

The ongoing drag from high interest rates meant activity in advanced economies generally slowed over Q4. And the latest evidence, including PMI surveys, suggested that while developed markets should avoid recessions, global growth will generally undershoot consensus expectations in 2024. There are a couple of reasons why this is the case. For one, monetary policy should remain a drag on growth in 2024. Admittedly, the pass-through of interest rates to activity is proving to be weaker than in previous cycles. But higher interest rates have already caused bank lending to slow sharply. And higher policy rates are gradually feeding through to debt service costs. As income growth slows in the year ahead, rising interest payments are set to eat up a larger share of household incomes.

• Annual Review of the Year 2014 and Outlook for 2015: March 2015
• London Property Market Snapshot: March 2015
• Rising Rents Drive Property Forward; The UK Real Estate Market Set for Further Growth in 2015: January 2015
• The Continued Ascent; Traditional Property Drivers: September, 2014
• Quarterly Review, Q2: August 2014
• Seeking Value Away from Prime: July, 2014
• The Renaissance of Commercial Lending: June, 2014
• Quarterly Review: Q1, 2014
• Inflation Outlook: 2014