Quarterly Review Q1 2016: April 2016

US economic data are painting a mixed picture. For instance, weak trade figures and a fall in motor vehicle sales seem consistent with a weak outturn for Q1 GDP of just 1% annualised. That said, non-farm payrolls posted a robust gain of 215,000 in March. But this has yet to translate into wage pressures, average hourly earnings growth was unchanged at 2.3%y/y. And while, at 0.3%, the annual rate of headline inflation is still subdued, core inflation is somewhat higher at 2.3%. In all, this may well push the Fed into action sooner than markets expect. Read more